Tuesday is election day and the market, well, doesn't like elections. Last week stocks went through some material derisking as we experienced the worst five days since the pandemic hit in March, down -4%.
Recently released economic numbers and earnings have been relatively good, almost universally coming in well above low expectations. The market has not run because the election is in front of us and a rising wave of COVID cases is threatening to swamp the nascent recovery.
While elections are an important part of our democracy the market is generally a place that like stability. Even though President Trump has been a non-norm president (for the better or worse depending on your perspective), the market did perform under his leadership. This is because the market likes low(er) taxes (more money into the market by people with investable liquidity) mostly. On the flip side the market has performed better under Democratic presidents. But even better under split governments.
As everyone is saying however, elections do have consequences to the market. So in that sense, please vote on Tuesday.