Good Vaccine News Trumps Bad Case Counts
"Congrats...on everything, Dustin Johnson" - Collin Cowherd on The Master's Winner.
The current consensus is we are in the "2nd Nine" of the pandemic, within a few weeks of early vaccine and therapeutic releases. Any threat to that consensus will likely be met with market disappointment and additional economic damage.
The market ran this week - hopefully not too fast as news in from Pfizer and Moderna's vaccine' made the market jump. The current Covid numbers continues to be dire, but good vaccine news always trumps bad case counts.
Volatility will remain high as we flirt with potential economic lockdowns and of course the question of Senate control is up in the air till January. Despite the uncertain and dire current news, the Federal Reserve’s strong economic support ("Don’t fight the Fed" is an old market expression), vaccine induced return to “normalcy” in 5-8 months, another potential government stimulus, and corporate earnings coming in less bad than expected, all are helping buoy the market to new highs.
We do fear longer run the unwinding of all this stimulus, high debt burden and potential inflation spikes may mean all that we have done is pull future returns forward to today; but that is a worry for another day - and another one minute read. For now, let us hope these vaccines live up to the hype, as the markets performed up 2.5% this week because of them.